The cockpit answers two questions each morning: is it time to acquire land at auction, and is any Thai stock a buy? It’s a patient buyer’s tool, not a trading screen. Read this once and the whole page becomes obvious.
The edge is land within three hours of home. Stocks are the second bucket — where land profits wait patiently until a great Thai business goes on sale in a panic.
Two beliefs drive everything here. First: prices come back to their average. When fear pushes a good company far below what it’s worth, that gap tends to close. Second: follow the incentives. Before trusting any number, ask who gets paid and whether their payday depends on the business doing well or just on me believing it will. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business behind it is real.
So this tool does two jobs: it tells you where we are in the weather (the whole market — calm or storming), and it keeps a short list of good businesses with a pre-agreed price at which they’d be worth buying. Most days the answer is “wait.” Waiting well is the whole game.
The one rule: no computable value = no margin of safety = no position. If you can’t say what a thing is worth, you don’t buy it — no matter how good the story sounds.
The top block of the cockpit is about your real edge: buying land at auction. It runs on a simple chain of incentives — debt stress today becomes cheap land tomorrow. When households and businesses over-borrow, some stop paying; those loans go bad; banks foreclose; and the seized land reaches the government’s auction house (the LED / กรมบังคับคดี) 1–2 years later. So the best moment for a cash buyer is not when things feel good — it’s when credit is tight, sellers are motivated, and your leveraged competitors can’t get funded.
The cycle bar marks where the land market sits: Fire-sale → Buyer’s → Balanced → Seller’s → Frothy. The acquisition window is the land version of the panic window — OPEN when supply is high and competition is starved, CLOSED when everyone’s bidding and prices are frothy.
Two gauges, not one. Beside the acquisition (buy) window sits an exit window — because your resale can freeze exactly when lots are cheapest (it did for years after 1997). A green buy side means nothing if the sell side is shut. And a foreclosure-policy tile watches the thing that breaks the whole model: a government debt-moratorium or auction suspension (as in 2020) that halts the supply of distressed lots even at peak distress.
The tiles split in two. “Credit & distress” is your supply pipeline — household debt, bad loans, how frozen lending is, and the policy rate. “Land market” is your entry and exit — land prices in your regions, how many homes are actually changing hands, new supply, and the transaction-fee break. Colors follow the same buyer’s-seat logic: green = good for you as a cash acquirer, red = a headwind (usually on the exit side).
The one thing to remember: right now the buy side is wide open, but the exit — your lower-middle-income resale buyer — is the bottleneck. Win the lots you can underwrite conservatively, not every lot. And these are national numbers; your specific Saraburi/Korat plot and the specific auction lot always matter more.
The watchlist has three stacked sections. Top to bottom, they go from the whole market down to the single stock.
Think of the market like a patient hooked up to monitors. This strip shows the vital signs so you know if it’s healthy, feverish, or crashing — without reading the news.
The cycle bar shows where we are in the long weather pattern: Trough → Recovery → Expansion → Peak/Late → Contraction. A marker sits on today’s phase. Late/Peak means expensive and complacent — a time to hold cash, not chase.
The panic window is the single most important line. It opens on the worse of two alarms: US fear (the VIX) or Thai-native stress — how far Thai shares have fallen from their 52-week high, plus a weak baht — so a Bangkok-only selloff can’t hide behind a calm Wall Street (the fix for 2013, when the SET fell 23% while the VIX never moved). When both are calm the window is CLOSED and you wait; when either rings it OPENS. It also shows a scale-in ladder: deploy in lots as stress deepens, never all-in on the first OPEN — because “open” is rarely the exact bottom (2008 fell ~30% more after the VIX first spiked).
The vitals tiles are the dials that move the market: interest rates (US and Thai), the baht, bond yields, gold, and oil. Each has a plain one-line meaning. Crucially, the colors are read from your seat as a cash buyer — not the market’s. A weak baht or a fear spike shows green here, because that’s when your discount forms. See the colors below.
A short summary box that pulls out only the stocks doing something today — one in its buy zone, one gone too expensive, one whose story is breaking. If it says “No action — keep waiting,” that is a complete and correct answer. Close the page and go have coffee.
The list is grouped the way you actually decide — by purpose, matching your doctrine that only three buckets exist: Income (own for the yield — your held infra funds, fat-payout names, and banks), Monopolists (dominant franchises, buy only in a panic), and Value survivors (net-cash industrials waiting for a pullback). Cap size is now just a small label on each row. Each stock shows the same things:
Enter / Exit / Now. Three prices side by side. Enter is the price at or below which it’s worth buying. Exit (or Trim) is where it’s gotten expensive enough to lighten up. Now is the live price — painted green when it’s in the buy zone, red when it isn’t. Under it, “+18% vs buy” tells you how far the price still has to fall to reach your entry.
The flag (the colored dot) is the quick glance: 🟢 buy zone, 🟡 expensive/trim, 🔴 avoid or thesis breaking, ⚪ just waiting.
The yield chip shows the live dividend yield — the cash the company pays you each year as a percent of today’s price. Green means fat (8%+), gold means decent (4%+), grey means thin.
The STOP line is the honest part: what would prove the idea wrong. If that thing happens, you leave — no arguing with yourself later.
The confidence tag tells you how hard I’ve checked it:
forensic Full deep dive done — I counted every share, stripped one-off gains, valued the pieces, and took a haircut for governance. Highest trust.
mono A Thai near-monopoly — a business so dominant it’s hard to unseat. Buy these in a panic.
screen Passed the survival screen (net cash, real free cash flow, liquid enough) but hasn’t had the full forensic yet. Provisional — treat the level as a placeholder.
fin A bank or financial — judged on a different gate (capital, bad loans, coverage, ROE, price-to-book, dividend durability), because you can’t net-cash a balance sheet that is leverage.
held Something you already own for yield (DIF, 3BBIF) — shown to watch, marked “no add” (a melting ice cube).
The full inclusion / exclusion rules for each tag are in the next section.
Every name carries one tag: forensic, mono, or screen. Here is exactly what puts a stock in each box — and what takes it out. From now on, every time the morning brief adds, drops, promotes, or downgrades a name, it names the box and the exact line below that tripped it — nothing moves silently.
Before a stock is even considered, it has to be able to survive a bad year without going bust or quietly printing new shares that shrink your slice:
Nothing enters or leaves silently. When a name is added, the brief states its tag, the inclusion line it ticked, and confirms the data was verified across two sources first. When a name is dropped or downgraded, it names the exact exclusion line that tripped it — and the stock isn’t deleted, it moves to the bottom (“once-attractive, parked”) so you keep the memory. Ten names max per cap tier.
When a name wears the forensic tag, this is the eight-step teardown it passed. It rests on one idea: a price is only cheap if the business behind it is real, and the people running it will actually let you share in the value.
Step 0 · Count every share. Get the TRUE share count — all shares that exist plus every warrant, option and private-placement mandate that could become shares later. Your slice is what matters; a company that keeps printing new shares quietly shrinks you. The tell: is management paid per share (an owner) or per piece of paper printed (a promoter)?
Step 1 · Strip earnings to the recurring core. Throw out one-off gains — asset sales, revaluations, FX flukes — and keep only the profit the business earns repeatably. Ask who benefits from this quarter looking good now: a one-time gain that lands just as they’re about to raise money is a flag, not a feature.
Step 2 · Value the pieces separately. Add up what each part is worth on its own — a depleting asset (a mine, a lease) as a countdown to zero minus cleanup; a service arm at a normal profit margin; a stake in another listed firm at market value minus a discount. Check who owns each part: if minorities own a slice of a subsidiary, that value isn’t fully yours. Compare the whole empire (consolidated) with what you’d actually own (company-only).
Step 3 · Hunt the leaks. Find value draining out the back door: loans to insiders (related-party), unexplained “investments,” cash trapped in subsidiaries, and under-provisioning (not setting enough aside for bad debts or future costs). A low price means nothing if value leaks out faster than it compounds.
Step 4 · Assemble the number. Parts + the cash that’s genuinely yours − debt − hidden liabilities, all ÷ the fully-diluted share count from Step 0. That’s the raw value per share, before judgment.
Step 5 · Governance haircut (0–40%). Cut that value by up to 40% based on the ten-year record of how management has treated minority owners. The long chart is the fossil record of incentives — a decade of behaviour tells you whether they’ll share the value or keep it.
Step 6 · Pick the discount rate. The rate you discount the future by is your pay for entering their incentive structure: ~9% for aligned, liquid large caps; 12–14% when you might be the “exit liquidity” (the buyer they offload to). The government bond yield (~3%) is only a floor check — never the rate you actually use.
Step 7 · Three scenarios (bear / base / bull). Model outcomes with mean reversion: for a no-moat business, fade its returns and payout back toward long-run norms (good times don’t last); hold earnings fixed only if a real moat justifies it. The gap between your value and today’s price, across all three, is your margin of safety.
A name earns “forensic” only if all eight pass and a real margin of safety survives at the ENTER price. If the value won’t compute, it can’t be forensic — it stays a provisional “screen,” or it stays off the list.
The one thing this method can’t touch: banks & insurers. You can’t net-cash or sum-the-parts a balance sheet that is leverage — a bank’s whole product is debt, so it has no “net cash” and fails the survival gate by design. Financials need their own gate: capital adequacy (CAR), bad-loan ratio (NPL), provision coverage, return on equity, price-to-book, and dividend durability. That’s why no bank is on the list yet — a framework limit, not an oversight.
Every color on this site is read from a cash buyer’s chair. Green is not “the market is up” — green is “good for you.” That’s why fear and a weak baht turn green: they build your discount.
The whole ritual is about two minutes with your coffee.
The question to ask yourself: not “what if this works?” but “what if I’m wrong?” The prize for perfect analysis of a bad asset is zero baht. If nothing’s obvious, that’s not a problem to solve — it’s the answer.
If a short word appears anywhere on the site, its full meaning is here.
| SET | Stock Exchange of Thailand — the main Thai stock market, and its headline index. |
| SET50 | The index of the 50 biggest, most-traded companies on the SET. |
| mai | Market for Alternative Investment — the SET’s board for smaller, growing companies. |
| Market cap | Market capitalisation — the whole company’s price tag (share price × number of shares). It’s how we sort small / mid / big. |
| Enter | The price at or below which a stock is worth buying — your pre-agreed entry. |
| Exit / Trim | The price where a stock has gotten expensive enough to sell some and take profit. |
| STOP | The thing that would prove the idea wrong — if it happens, you leave. |
| Ticker | A company’s short code on the exchange (e.g. AOT = Airports of Thailand). |
| P/E | Price-to-Earnings — how many years of current profit you’re paying for the stock. Lower is cheaper. “Fwd P/E” uses next year’s expected profit. |
| FCF | Free Cash Flow — the real cash left over after the business pays for everything it needs to keep running. The cash that can actually reach you. |
| CR | Current Ratio — short-term assets divided by short-term bills. Above ~1.5 means it can comfortably pay what’s due. A survival check. |
| Net cash | Cash on hand minus all debt. “Net cash” = more cash than debt — a fortress balance sheet. |
| Ex-cash | The price you’re paying for the actual business once you subtract the cash it’s sitting on. “Ex-cash ~4×” means the operating business is dirt cheap. |
| dps | Dividend Per Share — the baht each share pays out in a year. |
| Yield / yld | Dividend yield — the yearly dividend as a percent of today’s price. ฿1 paid on a ฿20 stock = 5% yield. |
| Payout | The share of profit paid out as dividends. “Payout > earnings” is a warning — paying more than it earns can’t last. |
| ROE | Return on Equity — profit as a percent of owners’ money in the business. How hard the company’s capital works. |
| P/BV · book value | Book value = net worth per share (assets − liabilities). Price-to-book (P/BV) compares the price to that; below 1.0× = trading under net worth — the main value gauge for a bank. |
| CAR | Capital Adequacy Ratio — a bank’s safety buffer (capital vs. risk-weighted loans). Higher = more shock-proof; ~18% is strong vs. the ~11% regulatory floor. |
| NPL coverage | How much a bank has reserved against its bad loans. ≥120% = over-provisioned, a cushion if the credit cycle worsens. |
| SOTP | Sum Of The Parts — valuing a company by adding up its pieces separately, instead of as one lump. |
| Diluted shares | The true, full share count — including every warrant and option that could turn into new shares later and shrink your slice. |
| PP | Private Placement — a company selling new shares to a chosen buyer. Watch it: it can quietly dilute you. |
| Related-party | Deals or loans between a company and its own insiders/affiliates. A place value can leak out — check who benefits. |
| DCA | Dollar-Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount on a schedule instead of all at once, to smooth out the price. |
| EM | Emerging Markets — developing economies like Thailand. Money flows into them when big-country (US) rates fall. |
| YoY / YTD | Year-over-Year (vs the same time last year) · Year-To-Date (since Jan 1 this year). |
| REIT | Real Estate Investment Trust — a listed fund that owns income property and passes the rent to holders. (Same family as the infrastructure funds below.) |
| Fed | The US Federal Reserve — America’s central bank. Its interest rate sets the tide for money worldwide. Cuts = tailwind for Thailand. |
| BoT | Bank of Thailand — the Thai central bank. Its rate sets the cost of credit for your land buyers. |
| 10Y / bond yield | The interest on a 10-year government bond — the “safe” return everything else is measured against. High yields make stocks less tempting. |
| VIX | The Volatility Index — Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” Low = calm and expensive; high (25–30+) = panic. One of two triggers for the buy window (the other is Thai stress). |
| Drawdown / 52-wk high | How far a price has fallen from its highest point in the past year. A Thai-share drawdown ≥15% helps open your buy window on its own. |
| Thai equity stress | The drawdown of Thai shares (a USD proxy blending share-price falls and baht weakness) — the home-grown alarm that fires when Bangkok sells off even if Wall Street stays calm. |
| Scale-in ladder | Deploy in lots as stress deepens (1st lot as the window opens, more as it worsens) — because “open” is rarely the exact bottom. Never all-in on the first signal. |
| USD / THB | US dollars per Thai baht — the exchange rate. A weak baht (past ~฿37) often means foreigners selling, which forms your discount. |
| Brent | Brent crude — the global oil price benchmark. Thailand imports oil, so rising Brent pressures the baht and company margins. |
| Gold | The gold price. Rising gold is often a late-cycle “fear and inflation” tell. |
| Margin | Profit as a percent of sales. “Cycle-high margin” is a caution — it usually falls back to normal. |
| Moat | A durable advantage that keeps competitors out — a brand, a network, a licence. What makes a monopolist safe to buy in panic. |
| NPL | Non-Performing Loan — a loan the borrower has stopped paying (90+ days late). Rising NPLs feed the foreclosure pipeline that supplies auction land. |
| Special Mention / Stage-2 | Loans not yet “bad” but showing early stress — the shadow pipeline, tomorrow’s NPLs. About 7% now, on top of the 2.85% already gone bad. |
| NPA | Non-Performing Asset — property a bank has already seized and wants to sell. The bank is a motivated seller; that’s your opening. |
| LED · กรมบังคับคดี | Legal Execution Department — the government body that runs court-ordered property auctions. Your main source of auction supply. |
| Foreclosure | The legal process where a lender takes and sells a defaulter’s pledged property to recover the debt. |
| Household debt / GDP | Total household borrowing versus the size of the economy. High (86.7%) means stressed borrowers — both a fuller foreclosure pipeline and a weaker resale market. |
| Credit / loan growth | How fast banks are lending. Frozen or negative (+0.2% now) means rivals can’t get funded — fewer competing bidders for you. |
| LTV | Loan-to-Value — how much a bank will lend against a property’s price. Looser LTV helps your buyers get a mortgage (helps your exit). |
| Land price index | An official gauge of land / house prices over time, by region — how firm your entry and exit prices are. |
| Transfer + mortgage fee | The government tax to register a sale and a mortgage (normally ~2% + 1%). Cut to 0.01% to stimulate the market — near-zero now, on both your buy and your resale. |
| Acquisition window | My summary gauge of how favourable it is to buy at auction now: supply high + competition low = open. |
| Exit window | The sell-side gauge beside the buy-side one. It can freeze for years in a crisis, so a cheap buy is only real if you can eventually clear it. |
| Moratorium | A government freeze on foreclosures / auctions (as in 2020). Compassion for borrowers, but it shuts off your supply of distressed lots at the worst-distress moment. |
| Your holdings | DIF = Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund · 3BBIF = 3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund (formerly JASIF, the Jasmine broadband fund). Both are income funds you hold for yield — “melting ice cubes,” no additions. |
| Small cap | SAT Somboon Advance Technology · TACC T.A.C. Consumer · SAPPE Sappe · SIS SIS Distribution (Thailand) · KISS Rojukiss International · AU After You. |
| Mid cap | STANLY Thai Stanley Electric · GFPT GFPT (integrated poultry) · ICHI Ichitan Group · TVO Thai Vegetable Oil · HANA Hana Microelectronics. |
| Big cap | ADVANC Advanced Info Service (AIS) · OSP Osotspa · BDMS Bangkok Dusit Medical Services · CPN Central Pattana · CPALL CP All · BH Bumrungrad Hospital · BEM Bangkok Expressway and Metro · AOT Airports of Thailand. |
| Others named | CP Charoen Pokphand (the group behind CPALL) · CBG Carabao Group (rival to OSP) · CK Ch. Karnchang (affiliate of BEM) · TRUE True Corporation (rival to ADVANC) · MRT Mass Rapid Transit (Bangkok metro) · EV Electric Vehicle. |