Morning brief · live · cycle monitor · small / mid / big cap
Thai Equity Watchlist
Where are we in the cycle, is the panic window open, and what's a buy — green in the buy zone, red when it isn't. Each name shows a live dividend yield, ENTER/EXIT levels, and a thesis-break STOP.
Market vitalsLate expansion
Trough
Recovery
Expansion
Peak/Late
Contraction
Expensive market, restrictive US rates, inflation flickering (gold & oil up), fear still low. The easy reflation (BoT cuts, SET +30%) is largely behind us — patient stance, cash ready, nothing at buy. Watch VIX, THB and oil for the turn.
Panic window
WINDOW CLOSED — waiting
Calm · expensiveFear · your entry
VIX 18.8 · foreigners net buyers · SET no drawdown — the window opens on a fear spike + foreign outflows.
Thailand
SET Index
1,639+30% YTD
Fwd P/E ~16× vs Asia ~13× — pricey; demand a deeper discount.
USD / THB
฿33.57
No stress. Weak THB (past ฿37) = foreigners selling → your discount forms.
Bank of Thailand
1.00%↓ cutting
Easing (1.25%→1.00%) — cheaper credit for your land buyers, supports the SET.
Thai 10Y bond
2.21%
Low; SET dividend yield ~3% still beats it — bonds aren't stealing equity's lunch yet.
Global drivers
US Fed rate
3.75%⏸ paused
Held after cuts; restrictive. A resumed cut = the reflation trigger — tailwind for EM & your DIF/3BBIF.
US 10Y yield
4.54% ▼
The global discount rate. Elevated — caps valuations & pressures your yield holdings (DIF/3BBIF).
VIX · fear
18.8 ▲
Calm below ~20. Your buy window opens when fear spikes past 25–30.
Gold
$4,019 ▲
Near record — fear & inflation hedge bid; a late-cycle tell.
Brent oil
$88 ▲
Firm/rising — inflation input; Thailand imports oil, so it pressures THB & margins.
🟢 tailwind / opportunity for a cash buyer · 🟡 neutral · 🔴 headwind — read from your seat, not the market's · macro live where possible, static values as of 18 Jul close
What needs attention
🔴 AU — AVOID, earnings falling
🟡 AOT — rich, near trim
Live prices & macro via Yahoo Finance, refreshed on each visit (cached ~10 min). Yield = trailing dividend ÷ live price.